Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $182.80 - $1,038.70 | $344.95 |
| Multi-Stage | $156.93 - $171.66 | $164.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $254.56 | |
| Current Price | $66.10 | |
| Upside | 285.11% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.21% | 6.83% | 6.70 | 21.57 | 13.23 | 3.67 | 3.41 | 8.31 | 8.31 | 7.56 | 4.48 | 3.49 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -68.93% | 63.04% | 260.50% | 7.62% | -58.96% | -0.01% | 9.93% | 68.74% | 28.40% | 0.84% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.09% | 21.32% | 9.42% | 3.71% | 4.94% | 27.70% | 9.34% | 6.66% | 4.98% | 6.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 105.21 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 100.29 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 4.92 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 21.04 | 13.15 | 7.89 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 4.92 | 4.92 | 4.92 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -21.04 | -13.15 | -7.89 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -16.13 | -8.23 | -2.97 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.85 | 19.85 | 19.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.81 | -0.41 | -0.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.81 | -0.41 | -0.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.24 | 4.64 | 4.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.36% | 6.36% | 6.36% |
| Growth Rate | 3.95% | 4.95% | 5.95% |
| Fair Value | $182.80 | $344.95 | $1,038.70 |
| Upside / Downside | 176.55% | 421.86% | 1,471.41% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 105.21 | 110.41 | 115.88 | 121.61 | 127.62 | 133.93 | 137.95 |
| Payout Ratio | 95.33% | 94.26% | 93.20% | 92.13% | 91.07% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 100.29 | 104.08 | 107.99 | 112.04 | 116.22 | 120.54 | 127.61 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.36% | 6.36% | 6.36% |
| Growth Rate | 3.95% | 4.95% | 5.95% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 96.93 | 97.86 | 98.79 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 93.66 | 95.47 | 97.30 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 90.49 | 93.13 | 95.81 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 87.41 | 90.83 | 94.34 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 84.43 | 88.57 | 92.88 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,662.69 | 2,793.26 | 2,928.90 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,115.61 | 3,259.12 | 3,408.02 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.85 | 19.85 | 19.85 |
| Fair Value | $156.93 | $164.16 | $171.66 |
| Upside / Downside | 137.42% | 148.35% | 159.70% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
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| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
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