Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Pato Chemical Industry Public Company Limited (PATO.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.02 - $7.51$6.20
Multi-Stage$13.63 - $14.99$14.29
Blended Fair Value$10.25
Current Price$7.40
Upside38.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.95%-5.76%0.500.410.820.570.601.001.230.920.700.91
YoY Growth--21.91%-49.98%43.72%-4.99%-39.98%-18.70%33.66%31.54%-22.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.54%4.56%8.25%4.88%5.73%12.37%9.78%5.99%5.84%8.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)87.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.4310.896.54
Cash Retained (M)1.701.701.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.43-10.89-6.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-15.73-9.19-4.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)142.13142.13142.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.06-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.11-0.06-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Fair Value$5.02$6.20$7.51
Upside / Downside-32.18%-16.19%1.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)87.1485.1883.2681.3979.5577.7680.10
Payout Ratio98.05%96.44%94.83%93.22%91.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.4482.1578.9675.8772.8869.9974.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-3.25%-2.25%-1.25%
Year 1 PV (M)76.5677.3578.14
Year 2 PV (M)68.5870.0071.44
Year 3 PV (M)61.4163.3365.30
Year 4 PV (M)54.9857.2959.67
Year 5 PV (M)49.2051.8054.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,625.931,711.721,801.09
Equity Value (M)1,936.662,031.492,130.13
Shares Outstanding (M)142.13142.13142.13
Fair Value$13.63$14.29$14.99
Upside / Downside84.14%93.15%102.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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