Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Oak Valley Bancorp (OVLY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.48 - $405.50$183.23
Multi-Stage$45.21 - $49.45$47.29
Blended Fair Value$115.26
Current Price$28.17
Upside309.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.10%11.01%0.450.320.300.290.280.270.260.240.230.20
YoY Growth--41.61%6.95%3.69%3.78%3.84%4.58%4.70%4.23%14.45%28.60%
Dividend Yield--1.81%1.33%1.26%1.56%1.62%1.70%1.33%1.09%1.77%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.382.111.27
Cash Retained (M)11.8711.8711.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.38-2.11-1.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.499.7610.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.298.298.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.031.181.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.031.181.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.48$183.23$405.50
Upside / Downside199.90%550.44%1,339.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.8917.9919.1620.4121.7323.1423.84
Payout Ratio29.73%41.78%53.84%65.89%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.027.5210.3213.4516.9420.8322.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.54%7.54%7.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6.926.997.06
Year 2 PV (M)8.758.929.09
Year 3 PV (M)10.5110.8111.12
Year 4 PV (M)12.2012.6713.15
Year 5 PV (M)13.8214.4815.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)322.40337.97354.14
Equity Value (M)374.60391.84409.73
Shares Outstanding (M)8.298.298.29
Fair Value$45.21$47.29$49.45
Upside / Downside60.50%67.89%75.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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