Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Odfjell Technology Ltd. (OTL.OL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas DrillingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.78 - $98.99$82.17
Multi-Stage$128.74 - $141.25$134.87
Blended Fair Value$108.52
Current Price$60.60
Upside79.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%4.092.484.380.009.460.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--65.10%-43.47%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.93%3.80%8.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)337.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)240.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.4242.1425.28
Cash Retained (M)97.1097.1097.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.42-42.14-25.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.6854.9671.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.3840.3840.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.741.361.78
LTM Dividend per Share5.945.945.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.741.361.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.687.307.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$66.78$82.17$98.99
Upside / Downside10.20%35.59%63.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)337.10333.73330.39327.09323.82320.58330.20
Payout Ratio71.20%74.96%78.72%82.48%86.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)240.00250.15260.08269.78279.26288.52305.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)229.71232.05234.39
Year 2 PV (M)219.30223.80228.34
Year 3 PV (M)208.89215.35221.94
Year 4 PV (M)198.55206.78215.27
Year 5 PV (M)188.37198.18208.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,153.764,370.064,595.27
Equity Value (M)5,198.585,446.225,703.61
Shares Outstanding (M)40.3840.3840.38
Fair Value$128.74$134.87$141.25
Upside / Downside112.44%122.56%133.08%

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