Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $18.85 - $50.21 | $28.87 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.77 - $20.57 | $19.65 |
| Blended Fair Value | $24.26 | |
| Current Price | $2.49 | |
| Upside | 874.24% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 5.48% | 0.00% | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.48% | -4.91% | -3.94% | 18.12% | 21.60% | -73.46% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 13.32% | 9.90% | 8.44% | 7.86% | 6.29% | 6.27% | 23.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 16.16 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 5.78 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 10.38 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3.23 | 2.02 | 1.21 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 10.38 | 10.38 | 10.38 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3.23 | -2.02 | -1.21 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7.14 | 8.36 | 9.16 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.77 | 19.77 | 19.77 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.36 | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.65 | 0.72 | 0.76 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.04% | 7.04% | 7.04% |
| Growth Rate | 3.45% | 4.45% | 5.45% |
| Fair Value | $18.85 | $28.87 | $50.21 |
| Upside / Downside | 657.20% | 1,059.31% | 1,916.51% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 16.16 | 16.88 | 17.63 | 18.41 | 19.23 | 20.08 | 20.69 |
| Payout Ratio | 35.79% | 46.63% | 57.47% | 68.31% | 79.16% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 5.78 | 7.87 | 10.13 | 12.58 | 15.22 | 18.08 | 19.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.04% | 7.04% | 7.04% |
| Growth Rate | 3.45% | 4.45% | 5.45% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 7.28 | 7.35 | 7.42 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 8.67 | 8.84 | 9.01 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 9.96 | 10.26 | 10.55 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11.16 | 11.60 | 12.05 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 12.26 | 12.87 | 13.49 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 321.65 | 337.50 | 353.97 |
| Equity Value (M) | 370.99 | 388.41 | 406.50 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.77 | 19.77 | 19.77 |
| Fair Value | $18.77 | $19.65 | $20.57 |
| Upside / Downside | 653.77% | 689.16% | 725.91% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
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