Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ormat Technologies, Inc. (ORA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.13 - $70.89$49.86
Multi-Stage$36.31 - $39.76$38.01
Blended Fair Value$43.93
Current Price$96.25
Upside-54.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.39%11.78%0.480.470.450.440.370.370.440.340.420.21
YoY Growth--2.45%4.68%0.58%20.09%0.38%-16.58%30.83%-20.13%101.97%33.08%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.72%0.53%0.54%0.47%0.54%0.80%0.60%0.74%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.6716.6710.00
Cash Retained (M)104.27104.27104.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.67-16.67-10.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)77.6087.6094.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.9460.9460.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.271.441.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.271.441.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.912.02
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Fair Value$36.13$49.86$70.89
Upside / Downside-62.46%-48.20%-26.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.37139.22145.34151.72158.39165.35170.31
Payout Ratio21.81%35.45%49.09%62.73%76.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.0949.3671.3495.17120.95148.81157.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.39%4.39%5.39%
Year 1 PV (M)45.0945.5345.97
Year 2 PV (M)59.5660.7161.88
Year 3 PV (M)72.5874.7176.88
Year 4 PV (M)84.2887.5990.99
Year 5 PV (M)94.7499.41104.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,856.561,948.092,043.20
Equity Value (M)2,212.822,316.052,423.19
Shares Outstanding (M)60.9460.9460.94
Fair Value$36.31$38.01$39.76
Upside / Downside-62.27%-60.51%-58.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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