Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $166.18 - $337.58 | $316.35 |
| Multi-Stage | $56.91 - $62.34 | $59.57 |
| Blended Fair Value | $187.96 | |
| Current Price | $39.25 | |
| Upside | 378.89% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.60% | 8.21% | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.75% | 6.70% | 0.76% | 4.59% | 0.36% | 10.34% | 2.91% | 10.84% | 17.62% | 30.80% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.86% | 3.22% | 2.18% | 2.10% | 2.09% | 3.24% | 2.11% | 1.64% | 1.29% | 1.78% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 8.66 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2.85 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 5.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1.73 | 1.08 | 0.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 5.81 | 5.81 | 5.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1.73 | -1.08 | -0.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4.08 | 4.73 | 5.16 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.09 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.80 | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.80 | 0.93 | 1.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.36 | 1.49 | 1.57 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.17% | 6.17% | 7.17% |
| Fair Value | $166.18 | $316.35 | $337.58 |
| Upside / Downside | 323.40% | 705.99% | 760.08% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 8.66 | 9.20 | 9.76 | 10.37 | 11.01 | 11.69 | 12.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 32.91% | 44.33% | 55.75% | 67.17% | 78.58% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2.85 | 4.08 | 5.44 | 6.96 | 8.65 | 10.52 | 11.13 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% |
| Growth Rate | 5.17% | 6.17% | 7.17% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3.81 | 3.84 | 3.88 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4.75 | 4.84 | 4.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 5.68 | 5.84 | 6.01 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 6.59 | 6.84 | 7.10 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 7.48 | 7.85 | 8.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 261.20 | 273.86 | 287.00 |
| Equity Value (M) | 289.51 | 303.08 | 317.15 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.09 | 5.09 | 5.09 |
| Fair Value | $56.91 | $59.57 | $62.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 44.99% | 51.78% | 58.83% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
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