Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $68.66 - $113.30 | $88.46 |
| Multi-Stage | $85.88 - $93.79 | $89.76 |
| Blended Fair Value | $89.11 | |
| Current Price | $56.46 | |
| Upside | 57.83% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.54% | -1.30% | 4.68 | 3.46 | 4.01 | 10.64 | 6.73 | 3.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.64 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 35.27% | -13.75% | -62.32% | 58.06% | 97.55% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -76.62% | -87.93% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.57% | 6.88% | 10.81% | 22.45% | 12.53% | 17.82% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.61% | 2.34% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 705.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 501.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 204.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 141.00 | 88.13 | 52.88 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 204.00 | 204.00 | 204.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -141.00 | -88.13 | -52.88 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 63.00 | 115.88 | 151.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 119.72 | 119.72 | 119.72 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 4.18 | 4.18 | 4.18 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.97 | 1.26 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 4.71 | 5.15 | 5.45 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.09% | 3.09% | 4.09% |
| Fair Value | $68.66 | $88.46 | $113.30 |
| Upside / Downside | 21.61% | 56.69% | 100.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 705.00 | 726.81 | 749.29 | 772.47 | 796.37 | 821.00 | 845.63 |
| Payout Ratio | 71.06% | 74.85% | 78.64% | 82.43% | 86.21% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 501.00 | 544.02 | 589.23 | 636.71 | 686.57 | 738.90 | 782.21 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 2.09% | 3.09% | 4.09% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 493.82 | 498.66 | 503.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 485.50 | 495.05 | 504.70 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 476.20 | 490.34 | 504.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 466.11 | 484.64 | 503.72 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 455.34 | 478.08 | 501.72 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,904.70 | 8,299.49 | 8,709.90 |
| Equity Value (M) | 10,281.67 | 10,746.26 | 11,228.28 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 119.72 | 119.72 | 119.72 |
| Fair Value | $85.88 | $89.76 | $93.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 52.11% | 58.98% | 66.11% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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