Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $199.03 - $859.52 | $483.69 |
| Multi-Stage | $109.38 - $119.57 | $114.38 |
| Blended Fair Value | $299.04 | |
| Current Price | $80.94 | |
| Upside | 269.45% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.23% | 13.09% | 2.54 | 2.45 | 2.28 | 2.11 | 1.94 | 1.79 | 1.64 | 1.49 | 1.24 | 1.07 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 3.72% | 7.57% | 8.10% | 8.34% | 8.49% | 9.14% | 9.83% | 20.14% | 16.53% | 43.78% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.36% | 3.85% | 2.87% | 2.39% | 2.53% | 2.14% | 1.86% | 2.26% | 1.84% | 1.75% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 254.94 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 157.90 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 97.04 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 50.99 | 31.87 | 19.12 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 97.04 | 97.04 | 97.04 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -50.99 | -31.87 | -19.12 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 46.06 | 65.18 | 77.92 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 58.84 | 58.84 | 58.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 1.11 | 1.32 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.68 | 2.68 | 2.68 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.78 | 1.11 | 1.32 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.47 | 3.79 | 4.01 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.06% | 7.06% | 7.06% |
| Growth Rate | 5.23% | 6.23% | 7.23% |
| Fair Value | $199.03 | $483.69 | $859.52 |
| Upside / Downside | 145.90% | 497.59% | 961.92% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 254.94 | 270.82 | 287.69 | 305.62 | 324.65 | 344.88 | 355.22 |
| Payout Ratio | 61.93% | 67.55% | 73.16% | 78.77% | 84.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 157.90 | 182.93 | 210.48 | 240.75 | 273.97 | 310.39 | 328.58 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.06% | 7.06% | 7.06% |
| Growth Rate | 5.23% | 6.23% | 7.23% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 169.26 | 170.87 | 172.48 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 180.19 | 183.63 | 187.10 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 190.69 | 196.18 | 201.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 200.78 | 208.52 | 216.48 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 210.47 | 220.66 | 231.24 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 5,484.76 | 5,750.37 | 6,026.17 |
| Equity Value (M) | 6,436.14 | 6,730.22 | 7,035.24 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 58.84 | 58.84 | 58.84 |
| Fair Value | $109.38 | $114.38 | $119.57 |
| Upside / Downside | 35.14% | 41.32% | 47.72% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
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| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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