Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.49 - $72.99$52.43
Multi-Stage$51.84 - $56.77$54.26
Blended Fair Value$53.34
Current Price$46.27
Upside15.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-65.32%-38.18%0.011.651.631.611.561.481.351.231.121.01
YoY Growth---99.55%1.18%1.35%3.18%5.25%9.92%9.94%10.00%10.02%11.14%
Dividend Yield--0.02%4.81%4.33%3.95%4.82%4.82%3.14%3.74%3.19%3.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)503.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)340.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.6862.9337.76
Cash Retained (M)162.50162.50162.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.68-62.93-37.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)61.8299.58124.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.88201.88201.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.490.62
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.490.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.182.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Fair Value$38.49$52.43$72.99
Upside / Downside-16.82%13.31%57.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)503.40518.44533.93549.88566.31583.23600.72
Payout Ratio67.72%72.18%76.63%81.09%85.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)340.90374.19409.16445.89484.44524.90555.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.27%7.27%7.27%
Growth Rate1.99%2.99%3.99%
Year 1 PV (M)345.43348.82352.20
Year 2 PV (M)348.68355.55362.49
Year 3 PV (M)350.78361.20371.82
Year 4 PV (M)351.82365.82380.24
Year 5 PV (M)351.91369.50387.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,717.129,152.949,606.03
Equity Value (M)10,465.7310,953.8311,460.58
Shares Outstanding (M)201.88201.88201.88
Fair Value$51.84$54.26$56.77
Upside / Downside12.04%17.27%22.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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