Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $111.84 - $331.39 | $176.70 |
| Multi-Stage | $74.37 - $81.27 | $77.76 |
| Blended Fair Value | $127.23 | |
| Current Price | $43.49 | |
| Upside | 192.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 26.00% | 12.17% | 1.01 | 0.90 | 0.66 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 11.30% | 36.29% | 52.60% | 37.11% | 0.04% | 12.34% | 21.25% | 4.06% | -42.90% | 22.67% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.51% | 2.52% | 2.66% | 1.63% | 1.40% | 2.83% | 1.40% | 2.23% | 1.89% | 5.60% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 199.56 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 50.14 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 149.42 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 39.91 | 24.94 | 14.97 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 149.42 | 149.42 | 149.42 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -39.91 | -24.94 | -14.97 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 109.51 | 124.47 | 134.45 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 45.36 | 45.36 | 45.36 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2.41 | 2.74 | 2.96 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2.41 | 2.74 | 2.96 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.52 | 3.85 | 4.07 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $111.84 | $176.70 | $331.39 |
| Upside / Downside | 157.15% | 306.31% | 662.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 199.56 | 212.53 | 226.34 | 241.06 | 256.72 | 273.41 | 281.61 |
| Payout Ratio | 25.13% | 38.10% | 51.08% | 64.05% | 77.03% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 50.14 | 80.97 | 115.61 | 154.40 | 197.74 | 246.07 | 260.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.82% | 8.82% | 8.82% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 73.71 | 74.41 | 75.11 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 95.80 | 97.62 | 99.47 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 116.47 | 119.81 | 123.22 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 135.79 | 141.01 | 146.39 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 153.83 | 161.26 | 168.97 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 2,797.96 | 2,933.10 | 3,073.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 3,373.56 | 3,527.22 | 3,686.57 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 45.36 | 45.36 | 45.36 |
| Fair Value | $74.37 | $77.76 | $81.27 |
| Upside / Downside | 71.00% | 78.79% | 86.87% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
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| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
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