Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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OceanFirst Financial Corp. (OCFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.97 - $103.03$55.17
Multi-Stage$24.25 - $26.45$25.33
Blended Fair Value$40.25
Current Price$17.57
Upside129.07%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.24%19.97%0.880.890.820.770.740.590.510.330.220.15
YoY Growth---0.77%7.92%6.74%3.71%25.34%15.82%53.29%52.87%45.13%5.48%
Dividend Yield--5.18%5.61%4.45%3.83%3.10%3.73%2.12%1.25%0.77%0.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.969.975.98
Cash Retained (M)30.3430.3430.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.96-9.97-5.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.3820.3724.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.350.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.97$55.17$103.03
Upside / Downside99.06%213.99%486.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.7984.9890.5096.39102.65109.32112.60
Payout Ratio61.98%67.58%73.19%78.79%84.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4557.4366.2475.9486.6398.39104.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.2752.7753.27
Year 2 PV (M)54.8855.9256.98
Year 3 PV (M)57.2758.9160.59
Year 4 PV (M)59.4661.7564.10
Year 5 PV (M)61.4764.4467.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,115.621,169.501,225.45
Equity Value (M)1,400.981,463.301,527.91
Shares Outstanding (M)57.7757.7757.77
Fair Value$24.25$25.33$26.45
Upside / Downside38.02%44.16%50.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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