Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Österreichische Post AG (O3P.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.55 - $45.04$33.82
Multi-Stage$43.07 - $47.17$45.08
Blended Fair Value$39.45
Current Price$30.25
Upside30.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.07%-0.76%1.781.792.021.782.082.082.052.001.961.96
YoY Growth---0.66%-11.16%13.50%-14.59%0.00%1.22%2.74%2.19%0.08%1.85%
Dividend Yield--5.69%5.62%5.92%5.52%5.58%6.38%5.52%4.95%5.24%5.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)129.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.8616.169.70
Cash Retained (M)2.402.402.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.86-16.16-9.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-23.46-13.76-7.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.5567.5567.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.20-0.11
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.35-0.20-0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.671.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Fair Value$25.55$33.82$45.04
Upside / Downside-15.54%11.80%48.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)129.30131.62133.99136.39138.84141.33145.57
Payout Ratio98.14%96.52%94.89%93.26%91.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.90127.03127.13127.19127.22127.20134.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate0.80%1.80%2.80%
Year 1 PV (M)117.74118.91120.07
Year 2 PV (M)109.21111.38113.58
Year 3 PV (M)101.26104.31107.41
Year 4 PV (M)93.8797.65101.54
Year 5 PV (M)86.9991.3995.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,400.152,521.602,647.91
Equity Value (M)2,909.213,045.233,186.49
Shares Outstanding (M)67.5567.5567.55
Fair Value$43.07$45.08$47.17
Upside / Downside42.37%49.02%55.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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