Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Nonthavej Hospital Public Company Limited (NTV.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.06 - $39.98$31.09
Multi-Stage$43.73 - $48.00$45.82
Blended Fair Value$38.46
Current Price$24.90
Upside54.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%4.84%1.461.130.600.871.581.461.331.191.121.00
YoY Growth--29.20%88.33%-31.03%-44.94%8.22%9.77%11.76%6.25%12.00%9.89%
Dividend Yield--5.21%3.07%1.53%2.47%3.83%3.65%2.43%2.20%2.17%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)219.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.3141.4424.87
Cash Retained (M)112.35112.35112.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.31-41.44-24.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0470.9187.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.440.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Fair Value$24.06$31.09$39.98
Upside / Downside-3.39%24.86%60.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.55334.68337.84341.02344.24347.49357.92
Payout Ratio66.11%70.89%75.67%80.45%85.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)219.20237.26255.64274.34293.37312.74331.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate-0.06%0.94%1.94%
Year 1 PV (M)219.89222.09224.29
Year 2 PV (M)219.57223.99228.45
Year 3 PV (M)218.39225.01231.76
Year 4 PV (M)216.44225.23234.29
Year 5 PV (M)213.84224.75236.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,909.226,210.826,524.61
Equity Value (M)6,997.347,331.897,679.51
Shares Outstanding (M)160.00160.00160.00
Fair Value$43.73$45.82$48.00
Upside / Downside75.64%84.03%92.76%

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