Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NSL Foods Public Company Limited (NSL-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$211.54 - $403.66$378.29
Multi-Stage$63.63 - $69.63$66.58
Blended Fair Value$222.43
Current Price$28.75
Upside673.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.86%0.00%0.700.600.500.890.750.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--16.72%19.94%-43.66%18.33%200.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%2.65%2.27%5.62%6.25%2.08%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)608.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)315.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)293.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.7876.1245.67
Cash Retained (M)293.92293.92293.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.78-76.12-45.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.14217.81248.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.00300.00300.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.730.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.730.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.621.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$211.54$378.29$403.66
Upside / Downside635.79%1,215.80%1,304.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)608.92648.50690.65735.55783.36834.28859.30
Payout Ratio51.73%59.38%67.04%74.69%82.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)315.00385.11463.00549.40645.06750.85794.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)358.85362.25365.65
Year 2 PV (M)402.02409.67417.40
Year 3 PV (M)444.50457.26470.26
Year 4 PV (M)486.32505.02524.26
Year 5 PV (M)527.47552.95579.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,870.5917,685.4418,531.48
Equity Value (M)19,089.7519,972.6020,888.46
Shares Outstanding (M)300.00300.00300.00
Fair Value$63.63$66.58$69.63
Upside / Downside121.33%131.57%142.19%

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