Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tencent Holdings Limited (NNND.F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,028.08 - $4,444.85$2,494.83
Multi-Stage$516.31 - $565.04$540.23
Blended Fair Value$1,517.53
Current Price$463.16
Upside227.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.26%32.27%3.102.251.391.341.110.890.730.540.400.28
YoY Growth--37.54%62.01%3.59%20.93%24.34%22.71%34.13%36.58%40.11%49.91%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.79%0.42%0.44%0.21%0.26%0.23%0.17%0.21%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208,003.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43,303.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)164,700.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41,600.6026,000.3815,600.23
Cash Retained (M)164,700.00164,700.00164,700.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-41,600.60-26,000.38-15,600.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)123,099.40138,699.63149,099.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
LTM Dividend per Share4.654.654.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.2314.9016.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend17.8819.5620.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,028.08$2,494.83$4,444.85
Upside / Downside121.97%438.65%859.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208,003.00221,523.20235,922.20251,257.15267,588.86284,982.14293,531.60
Payout Ratio20.82%34.65%48.49%62.33%76.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43,303.0076,768.33114,401.20156,602.00203,805.55256,483.92271,516.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.33%7.33%7.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70,850.7371,522.3072,193.87
Year 2 PV (M)97,443.9899,300.01101,173.56
Year 3 PV (M)123,107.34126,641.31130,242.27
Year 4 PV (M)147,864.83153,551.29159,400.21
Year 5 PV (M)171,739.91180,035.01188,647.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,194,078.464,396,654.024,606,982.62
Equity Value (M)4,805,085.245,027,703.945,258,640.12
Shares Outstanding (M)9,306.649,306.649,306.64
Fair Value$516.31$540.23$565.04
Upside / Downside11.47%16.64%22.00%

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