Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.77 - $287.72$185.24
Multi-Stage$129.03 - $141.28$135.04
Blended Fair Value$160.14
Current Price$107.01
Upside49.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%7.05%2.372.282.212.052.042.001.911.811.651.35
YoY Growth--3.95%2.76%8.04%0.34%2.28%4.63%5.63%9.47%22.31%12.75%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.46%3.81%2.92%2.62%2.78%2.53%3.03%2.32%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)63.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2512.667.59
Cash Retained (M)63.0663.0663.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.25-12.66-7.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.8150.4055.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
LTM Dividend per Share2.442.442.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.743.233.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.185.675.99
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Fair Value$127.77$185.24$287.72
Upside / Downside19.40%73.11%168.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.25105.73110.42115.31120.42125.75129.52
Payout Ratio37.72%48.18%58.63%69.09%79.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.1950.9464.7479.6795.79113.18119.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.63%7.63%7.63%
Growth Rate3.43%4.43%5.43%
Year 1 PV (M)46.8847.3347.78
Year 2 PV (M)54.8355.8956.97
Year 3 PV (M)62.0863.9065.75
Year 4 PV (M)68.6971.3974.16
Year 5 PV (M)74.6978.3782.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,709.061,793.291,880.81
Equity Value (M)2,016.232,110.172,207.68
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6315.6315.63
Fair Value$129.03$135.04$141.28
Upside / Downside20.58%26.19%32.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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