Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $49.90 - $94.97 | $68.06 |
| Multi-Stage | $49.65 - $54.16 | $51.87 |
| Blended Fair Value | $59.96 | |
| Current Price | $75.49 | |
| Upside | -20.57% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 11.95% | 12.88% | 2.05 | 1.84 | 1.63 | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.02 | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 11.98% | 12.83% | 10.85% | 10.24% | 13.91% | 14.61% | 13.88% | 14.45% | 16.39% | 9.83% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.11% | 1.73% | 1.76% | 1.94% | 2.14% | 2.19% | 2.44% | 2.27% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,502.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,558.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,944.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,300.40 | 812.75 | 487.65 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,944.00 | 1,944.00 | 1,944.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,300.40 | -812.75 | -487.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 643.60 | 1,131.25 | 1,456.35 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,060.90 | 2,060.90 | 2,060.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.21 | 2.21 | 2.21 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.55 | 0.71 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.52 | 2.76 | 2.92 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.85% | 4.85% | 5.85% |
| Fair Value | $49.90 | $68.06 | $94.97 |
| Upside / Downside | -33.90% | -9.84% | 25.81% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,502.00 | 6,817.06 | 7,147.38 | 7,493.71 | 7,856.83 | 8,237.53 | 8,484.66 |
| Payout Ratio | 70.10% | 74.08% | 78.06% | 82.04% | 86.02% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,558.00 | 5,050.16 | 5,579.31 | 6,147.89 | 6,758.47 | 7,413.78 | 7,848.31 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 3.85% | 4.85% | 5.85% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 4,584.86 | 4,629.01 | 4,673.16 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 4,598.57 | 4,687.56 | 4,777.41 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 4,600.33 | 4,734.52 | 4,871.28 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 4,591.27 | 4,770.69 | 4,955.32 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,572.41 | 4,796.85 | 5,030.01 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 79,376.92 | 83,273.11 | 87,320.82 |
| Equity Value (M) | 102,324.36 | 106,891.74 | 111,628.00 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,060.90 | 2,060.90 | 2,060.90 |
| Fair Value | $49.65 | $51.87 | $54.16 |
| Upside / Downside | -34.23% | -31.29% | -28.25% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
| HOLN.SW | Holcim Ltd | 3.98% | $3.10 | 11.12% |
| TQ5.SI | Frasers Property Limited | 3.98% | $0.05 | 60.69% |
| 007860.KS | Seoyon Co., Ltd. | 3.97% | $381.92 | 8.19% |
| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
| DSFIR.AS | DSM-Firmenich AG | 3.94% | $2.71 | 99.44% |
| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
| TCSG.ME | TCS Group Holding PLC | 3.94% | $129.27 | 21.76% |
| 001720.KS | Shinyoung Securities Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $5,219.58 | 32.99% |
| 0UKH.L | Bank of Montreal | 3.93% | $7.04 | 57.77% |
| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
| 601528.SS | Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd | 3.93% | $0.22 | 21.93% |
| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
| EMA | Emera Incorporated | 3.93% | $1.93 | 49.45% |
| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
| TTALO.HE | Terveystalo Oyj | 3.93% | $0.38 | 55.32% |
| 003012.SZ | Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. | 3.92% | $0.26 | 78.10% |
| 300181.SZ | Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD | 3.92% | $0.63 | 73.60% |
| 6491.TW | Pegavision Corporation | 3.92% | $11.02 | 53.82% |
| 82800.HK | Tracker Fund of Hong Kong | 3.92% | $0.93 | 12.85% |
| DR0.DE | Deutsche Rohstoff AG | 3.92% | $1.96 | 26.92% |
| SIRIP.BK | Siri Prime Office Property Fund | 3.92% | $0.28 | 44.51% |
| SJR | Shaw Communications Inc. | 3.92% | $1.18 | 80.43% |
| 1437.TW | GTM Holdings Corporation | 3.91% | $1.35 | 64.33% |
| 234080.KS | JW Lifescience Corporation | 3.91% | $501.22 | 16.27% |
| 3693.TWO | AIC Inc. | 3.91% | $10.92 | 61.94% |
| 4863.KL | Telekom Malaysia Berhad | 3.91% | $0.31 | 59.49% |
| PBP.AX | Probiotec Limited | 3.91% | $0.12 | 41.70% |
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