Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Neodecortech S.p.A. (NDT.MI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.07 - $7.87$6.36
Multi-Stage$11.61 - $12.79$12.19
Blended Fair Value$9.28
Current Price$3.18
Upside191.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.150.090.140.150.000.080.080.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%64.01%-35.92%-5.95%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%4.43%2.26%3.92%6.01%0.00%1.95%1.85%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.430.900.54
Cash Retained (M)5.135.135.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.43-0.90-0.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.704.234.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.3313.3313.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.320.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.07$6.36$7.87
Upside / Downside59.37%100.14%147.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7.177.107.036.966.896.827.02
Payout Ratio28.43%40.74%53.06%65.37%77.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.042.893.734.555.356.146.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.692.722.75
Year 2 PV (M)3.233.303.36
Year 3 PV (M)3.673.783.90
Year 4 PV (M)4.024.194.36
Year 5 PV (M)4.294.524.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)136.81143.94151.35
Equity Value (M)154.72162.44170.47
Shares Outstanding (M)13.3313.3313.33
Fair Value$11.61$12.19$12.79
Upside / Downside265.07%283.29%302.24%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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