Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Matador Resources Company (MTDR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.22 - $268.33$175.64
Multi-Stage$88.27 - $96.42$92.27
Blended Fair Value$133.95
Current Price$44.93
Upside198.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.840.620.280.120.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--35.89%118.96%141.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%0.92%0.59%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)781.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)633.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)156.2497.6558.59
Cash Retained (M)633.12633.12633.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-156.24-97.65-58.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)476.88535.47574.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.824.284.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.005.475.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.22$175.64$268.33
Upside / Downside172.02%290.91%497.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)781.21831.99886.06943.661,005.001,070.321,102.43
Payout Ratio18.96%33.17%47.37%61.58%75.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.09275.93419.76581.13761.70963.291,019.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)248.91251.27253.62
Year 2 PV (M)341.57348.07354.64
Year 3 PV (M)426.56438.81451.29
Year 4 PV (M)504.35523.74543.69
Year 5 PV (M)575.36603.15632.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,935.879,367.489,815.60
Equity Value (M)11,032.6211,532.5212,050.85
Shares Outstanding (M)124.99124.99124.99
Fair Value$88.27$92.27$96.42
Upside / Downside96.46%105.36%114.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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