Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Maybank Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (MST.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.05 - $4.26$3.65
Multi-Stage$8.26 - $9.10$8.67
Blended Fair Value$6.16
Current Price$7.00
Upside-12.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.59%-16.23%0.490.990.820.990.280.970.861.611.551.91
YoY Growth---50.00%20.99%-17.35%250.00%-70.83%12.94%-46.88%3.90%-18.95%-34.03%
Dividend Yield--6.17%10.29%7.63%8.37%3.00%23.03%8.40%8.62%7.08%8.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)222.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.0836.9322.16
Cash Retained (M)72.7972.7972.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.08-36.93-22.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7135.8750.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)566.56566.56566.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.060.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%
Fair Value$3.05$3.65$4.26
Upside / Downside-56.48%-47.84%-39.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295.41280.65266.62253.30240.64228.61235.47
Payout Ratio75.36%78.29%81.22%84.14%87.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)222.62219.71216.54213.13209.53205.75217.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate-6.00%-5.00%-4.00%
Year 1 PV (M)203.42205.58207.75
Year 2 PV (M)185.61189.58193.59
Year 3 PV (M)169.14174.60180.17
Year 4 PV (M)153.95160.61167.48
Year 5 PV (M)139.96147.57155.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,825.374,033.224,250.00
Equity Value (M)4,677.464,911.165,154.49
Shares Outstanding (M)566.56566.56566.56
Fair Value$8.26$8.67$9.10
Upside / Downside17.94%23.84%29.97%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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