Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.62 - $25.75$21.54
Multi-Stage$28.57 - $31.40$29.96
Blended Fair Value$25.75
Current Price$26.63
Upside-3.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS8.23%-6.81%0.440.380.250.110.280.290.300.280.800.95
YoY Growth--14.09%56.03%120.31%-60.49%-4.14%-0.59%4.94%-64.78%-15.29%6.89%
Dividend Yield--1.53%1.60%0.98%1.05%8.59%1.70%1.84%1.79%7.21%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,077.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.00166.2599.75
Cash Retained (M)1,077.001,077.001,077.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.00-166.25-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)811.00910.75977.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.421.591.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.032.15
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Fair Value$17.62$21.54$25.75
Upside / Downside-33.85%-19.11%-3.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,330.001,321.261,312.581,303.951,295.381,286.871,325.48
Payout Ratio19.02%33.22%47.41%61.61%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.00438.90622.34803.35981.961,158.181,226.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.71%8.71%8.71%
Growth Rate-1.66%-0.66%0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)399.67403.73407.80
Year 2 PV (M)516.06526.61537.26
Year 3 PV (M)606.62625.31644.39
Year 4 PV (M)675.21703.10731.84
Year 5 PV (M)725.20762.83802.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,444.9514,142.5714,868.86
Equity Value (M)16,367.7217,164.1617,992.15
Shares Outstanding (M)572.96572.96572.96
Fair Value$28.57$29.96$31.40
Upside / Downside7.27%12.49%17.92%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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