Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $20.37 - $30.28 | $25.09 |
| Multi-Stage | $40.51 - $44.41 | $42.43 |
| Blended Fair Value | $33.76 | |
| Current Price | $13.18 | |
| Upside | 156.15% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.67 | 0.87 | 2.37 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 205.70% | -63.12% | 88.24% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 17.19% | 4.53% | 12.93% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 291.59 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 260.33 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 31.26 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 58.32 | 36.45 | 21.87 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 31.26 | 31.26 | 31.26 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -58.32 | -36.45 | -21.87 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -27.06 | -5.19 | 9.39 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 115.89 | 115.89 | 115.89 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.23 | -0.04 | 0.08 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.23 | -0.04 | 0.08 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.01 | 2.20 | 2.33 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $20.37 | $25.09 | $30.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 54.53% | 90.39% | 129.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 291.59 | 288.67 | 285.79 | 282.93 | 280.10 | 277.30 | 285.62 |
| Payout Ratio | 89.28% | 89.42% | 89.57% | 89.71% | 89.86% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 260.33 | 258.15 | 255.98 | 253.82 | 251.69 | 249.57 | 264.20 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.69% | 7.69% | 7.69% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 237.30 | 239.72 | 242.14 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 216.30 | 220.74 | 225.22 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 197.16 | 203.26 | 209.48 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 179.72 | 187.17 | 194.84 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 163.81 | 172.34 | 181.23 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 3,700.77 | 3,893.48 | 4,094.14 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,695.07 | 4,916.71 | 5,147.05 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 115.89 | 115.89 | 115.89 |
| Fair Value | $40.51 | $42.43 | $44.41 |
| Upside / Downside | 207.39% | 221.90% | 236.99% |
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
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