Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$293.47 - $1,658.10$555.85
Multi-Stage$172.30 - $188.29$180.15
Blended Fair Value$368.00
Current Price$201.53
Upside82.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.45%10.03%3.062.622.302.071.911.781.631.491.381.28
YoY Growth--16.56%14.06%10.92%8.80%7.16%9.05%9.05%8.50%7.91%8.59%
Dividend Yield--1.25%1.29%1.38%1.22%1.56%2.06%1.72%1.81%1.86%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,127.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,712.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,415.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)825.40515.88309.53
Cash Retained (M)2,415.002,415.002,415.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-825.40-515.88-309.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,589.601,899.132,105.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)495.00495.00495.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.213.844.25
LTM Dividend per Share3.463.463.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.213.844.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.677.307.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$293.47$555.85$1,658.10
Upside / Downside45.62%175.81%722.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,127.004,395.264,680.954,985.215,309.255,654.355,823.98
Payout Ratio41.48%51.19%60.89%70.59%80.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,712.002,249.772,850.223,519.224,263.145,088.915,387.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.90%7.90%7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,065.522,085.092,104.67
Year 2 PV (M)2,402.472,448.232,494.43
Year 3 PV (M)2,723.442,801.622,881.28
Year 4 PV (M)3,028.953,145.433,265.25
Year 5 PV (M)3,319.543,479.873,646.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)71,749.1975,214.7178,812.85
Equity Value (M)85,289.1189,174.9693,204.82
Shares Outstanding (M)495.00495.00495.00
Fair Value$172.30$180.15$188.29
Upside / Downside-14.50%-10.61%-6.57%

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