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Definitive Analysis

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Mueller Industries, Inc. (MLI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$143.87 - $347.18$213.48
Multi-Stage$100.06 - $109.36$104.63
Blended Fair Value$159.05
Current Price$101.40
Upside56.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.89%18.14%0.790.590.500.260.200.200.201.750.190.15
YoY Growth--33.26%19.86%91.46%30.42%0.07%-1.67%-88.47%827.93%25.56%0.50%
Dividend Yield--1.03%1.10%1.35%0.91%0.96%1.75%1.29%13.39%1.10%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)749.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)645.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)149.8393.6456.18
Cash Retained (M)645.10645.10645.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-149.83-93.64-56.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)495.27551.46588.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.45112.45112.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.404.905.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.404.905.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.335.836.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$143.87$213.48$347.18
Upside / Downside41.89%110.53%242.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)749.13797.82849.68904.91963.731,026.371,057.17
Payout Ratio13.89%29.11%44.33%59.55%74.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.03232.25376.68538.92720.65923.74977.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.41%9.41%9.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)210.28212.27214.27
Year 2 PV (M)308.81314.69320.62
Year 3 PV (M)400.02411.51423.21
Year 4 PV (M)484.33502.95522.11
Year 5 PV (M)562.10589.25617.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,285.859,734.3610,200.04
Equity Value (M)11,251.3911,765.0412,297.69
Shares Outstanding (M)112.45112.45112.45
Fair Value$100.06$104.63$109.36
Upside / Downside-1.32%3.18%7.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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