Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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MCAN Mortgage Corporation (MKP.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$101.48 - $366.38$322.54
Multi-Stage$47.87 - $52.29$50.04
Blended Fair Value$186.29
Current Price$19.45
Upside857.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.49%6.27%1.090.910.930.570.890.630.900.740.690.62
YoY Growth--19.68%-2.35%62.95%-35.54%40.34%-29.47%21.00%8.28%10.94%4.01%
Dividend Yield--5.94%5.75%6.22%3.21%5.40%5.20%5.64%4.18%4.58%4.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.288.925.35
Cash Retained (M)18.5518.5518.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.28-8.92-5.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.279.6313.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.7538.7538.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.250.34
LTM Dividend per Share1.361.361.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.250.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$101.48$322.54$366.38
Upside / Downside421.72%1,558.31%1,783.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.3976.0380.9886.2491.8597.82100.75
Payout Ratio74.01%77.21%80.41%83.61%86.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.8458.7165.1172.1079.7288.0393.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.3454.8555.37
Year 2 PV (M)55.7856.8457.91
Year 3 PV (M)57.1658.8060.48
Year 4 PV (M)58.5060.7563.06
Year 5 PV (M)59.7962.6765.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,569.571,645.381,724.10
Equity Value (M)1,855.131,939.302,026.58
Shares Outstanding (M)38.7538.7538.75
Fair Value$47.87$50.04$52.29
Upside / Downside146.12%157.28%168.86%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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