Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.62 - $18.08$15.29
Multi-Stage$20.16 - $22.13$21.13
Blended Fair Value$18.21
Current Price$23.87
Upside-23.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.520.470.400.080.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.83%17.13%432.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.79%1.83%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)231.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.4242.7625.66
Cash Retained (M)231.66231.66231.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.42-42.76-25.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.24188.90206.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.65187.65187.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.871.011.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.62$15.29$18.08
Upside / Downside-47.15%-35.95%-24.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342.10338.68335.29331.94328.62325.33335.09
Payout Ratio32.28%43.83%55.37%66.91%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.44148.43185.65222.11257.82292.80309.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)134.39135.76137.13
Year 2 PV (M)152.20155.32158.47
Year 3 PV (M)164.87169.97175.17
Year 4 PV (M)173.28180.46187.86
Year 5 PV (M)178.18187.45197.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,980.253,135.443,297.02
Equity Value (M)3,783.163,964.404,152.77
Shares Outstanding (M)187.65187.65187.65
Fair Value$20.16$21.13$22.13
Upside / Downside-15.54%-11.49%-7.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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