Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.94 - $178.67$111.74
Multi-Stage$81.61 - $89.38$85.42
Blended Fair Value$98.58
Current Price$88.44
Upside11.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.86%5.17%1.741.651.581.501.421.311.251.201.141.10
YoY Growth--5.30%5.03%4.95%5.91%8.12%4.55%4.76%4.56%4.33%4.20%
Dividend Yield--1.87%2.10%2.03%1.88%1.98%2.00%1.86%2.13%1.76%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.9216.8310.10
Cash Retained (M)67.9967.9967.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.92-16.83-10.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.0751.1757.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)36.5136.5136.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.401.59
LTM Dividend per Share1.821.821.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.401.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.953.233.41
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Fair Value$75.94$111.74$178.67
Upside / Downside-14.14%26.35%102.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.61140.22146.06152.14158.48165.09170.04
Payout Ratio49.49%57.59%65.69%73.80%81.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.6280.7595.95112.28129.79148.58157.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.17%4.17%5.17%
Year 1 PV (M)74.6275.3576.07
Year 2 PV (M)81.9483.5485.15
Year 3 PV (M)88.6091.2193.86
Year 4 PV (M)94.6598.38102.21
Year 5 PV (M)100.13105.08110.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,539.562,665.052,795.45
Equity Value (M)2,979.513,118.593,262.96
Shares Outstanding (M)36.5136.5136.51
Fair Value$81.61$85.42$89.38
Upside / Downside-7.72%-3.41%1.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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