Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $7.24 - $10.42 | $8.79 |
| Multi-Stage | $11.74 - $12.89 | $12.30 |
| Blended Fair Value | $10.55 | |
| Current Price | $7.13 | |
| Upside | 47.92% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 128.03% | 46.07% | 128.04% | 2.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.40% | 1.90% | 1.37% | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 38.15 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 11.14 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 27.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7.63 | 4.77 | 2.86 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 27.01 | 27.01 | 27.01 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7.63 | -4.77 | -2.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 19.38 | 22.24 | 24.15 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 37.22 | 37.22 | 37.22 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.52 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.82 | 0.90 | 0.95 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $7.24 | $8.79 | $10.42 |
| Upside / Downside | 1.55% | 23.31% | 46.15% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 38.15 | 37.77 | 37.39 | 37.02 | 36.65 | 36.28 | 37.37 |
| Payout Ratio | 29.21% | 41.36% | 53.52% | 65.68% | 77.84% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 11.14 | 15.62 | 20.01 | 24.32 | 28.53 | 32.65 | 34.57 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 14.18 | 14.32 | 14.47 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 16.48 | 16.82 | 17.16 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 18.16 | 18.73 | 19.30 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 19.34 | 20.14 | 20.96 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 20.08 | 21.13 | 22.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 348.63 | 366.79 | 385.69 |
| Equity Value (M) | 436.87 | 457.91 | 479.79 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 37.22 | 37.22 | 37.22 |
| Fair Value | $11.74 | $12.30 | $12.89 |
| Upside / Downside | 64.60% | 72.53% | 80.77% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
| 027410.KS | BGF Co., Ltd. | 3.96% | $152.83 | 25.29% |
| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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