Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$689.55 - $3,572.93$1,396.36
Multi-Stage$377.38 - $413.06$394.89
Blended Fair Value$895.63
Current Price$234.98
Upside281.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.851.761.570.380.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.83%12.61%310.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.80%1.11%0.99%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,005.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)444.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,561.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)801.00500.63300.38
Cash Retained (M)3,561.003,561.003,561.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-801.00-500.63-300.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,760.003,060.383,260.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.93222.93222.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.3813.7314.63
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.3813.7314.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.3715.7216.62
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$689.55$1,396.36$3,572.93
Upside / Downside193.45%494.25%1,420.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,005.004,265.334,542.574,837.845,152.305,487.205,651.81
Payout Ratio11.09%26.87%42.65%58.43%74.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)444.001,146.051,937.482,826.963,823.894,938.485,227.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.70%7.70%7.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,054.131,064.121,074.11
Year 2 PV (M)1,639.161,670.381,701.89
Year 3 PV (M)2,199.862,263.012,327.35
Year 4 PV (M)2,736.982,842.232,950.50
Year 5 PV (M)3,251.253,408.283,571.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,246.0876,783.9080,457.11
Equity Value (M)84,127.4588,031.9292,082.29
Shares Outstanding (M)222.93222.93222.93
Fair Value$377.38$394.89$413.06
Upside / Downside60.60%68.05%75.79%

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