Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $14.51 - $20.89 | $17.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.33 - $25.64 | $24.46 |
| Blended Fair Value | $21.04 | |
| Current Price | $10.50 | |
| Upside | 100.42% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2022 | 2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.77 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 50.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.87% | 5.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 33.01 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 7.76 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 25.25 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 6.60 | 4.13 | 2.48 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 25.25 | 25.25 | 25.25 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -6.60 | -4.13 | -2.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 18.65 | 21.12 | 22.78 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 16.07 | 16.07 | 16.07 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.16 | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.16 | 1.31 | 1.42 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.64 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $14.51 | $17.62 | $20.89 |
| Upside / Downside | 38.23% | 67.85% | 98.94% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 33.01 | 32.68 | 32.35 | 32.03 | 31.71 | 31.39 | 32.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 23.50% | 36.80% | 50.10% | 63.40% | 76.70% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 7.76 | 12.03 | 16.21 | 20.31 | 24.32 | 28.25 | 29.91 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 10.91 | 11.02 | 11.13 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 13.34 | 13.62 | 13.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 15.17 | 15.64 | 16.12 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 16.48 | 17.17 | 17.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 17.37 | 18.28 | 19.22 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 301.61 | 317.32 | 333.67 |
| Equity Value (M) | 374.89 | 393.04 | 411.91 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 16.07 | 16.07 | 16.07 |
| Fair Value | $23.33 | $24.46 | $25.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 122.24% | 132.99% | 144.18% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
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| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
| 000848.SZ | Cheng De Lolo Company Limited | 3.94% | $0.33 | 55.15% |
| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
| 4953.TWO | WITS Corp. | 3.93% | $4.91 | 84.65% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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