Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $175.35 - $426.79 | $260.91 |
| Multi-Stage | $123.35 - $134.73 | $128.94 |
| Blended Fair Value | $194.93 | |
| Current Price | $130.23 | |
| Upside | 49.68% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 60.55% | 32.55% | 2.13 | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 0.76 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 27.47% | -1.71% | 41.40% | 58.82% | 279.06% | 4.67% | 30.71% | 6.47% | 6.42% | 1.27% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.63% | 1.39% | 1.07% | 1.24% | 0.84% | 0.24% | 0.32% | 0.30% | 0.24% | 0.26% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,078.18 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 529.01 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,549.17 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 415.64 | 259.77 | 155.86 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,549.17 | 1,549.17 | 1,549.17 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -415.64 | -259.77 | -155.86 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,133.53 | 1,289.39 | 1,393.30 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 258.05 | 258.05 | 258.05 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.39 | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.05 | 2.05 | 2.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.39 | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.44 | 7.05 | 7.45 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.38% | 9.38% | 9.38% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $175.35 | $260.91 | $426.79 |
| Upside / Downside | 34.64% | 100.35% | 227.72% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,078.18 | 2,213.26 | 2,357.12 | 2,510.34 | 2,673.51 | 2,847.29 | 2,932.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 25.46% | 38.36% | 51.27% | 64.18% | 77.09% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 529.01 | 849.11 | 1,208.58 | 1,611.19 | 2,061.04 | 2,562.56 | 2,712.75 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.38% | 9.38% | 9.38% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 769.03 | 776.32 | 783.60 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 991.36 | 1,010.25 | 1,029.31 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,196.97 | 1,231.34 | 1,266.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,386.77 | 1,440.10 | 1,494.95 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,561.60 | 1,637.03 | 1,715.34 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 25,926.05 | 27,178.29 | 28,478.45 |
| Equity Value (M) | 31,831.78 | 33,273.31 | 34,768.00 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 258.05 | 258.05 | 258.05 |
| Fair Value | $123.35 | $128.94 | $134.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -5.28% | -0.99% | 3.46% |
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