Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. (LECO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.19 - $403.28$262.57
Multi-Stage$151.27 - $165.34$158.18
Blended Fair Value$210.38
Current Price$235.83
Upside-10.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.58%8.27%2.882.632.322.162.102.091.811.641.551.54
YoY Growth--9.55%13.22%7.28%3.16%0.17%15.54%10.39%5.87%0.42%18.71%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.04%1.37%1.57%1.71%3.03%2.11%1.82%1.78%2.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)524.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)358.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.9565.5939.36
Cash Retained (M)358.10358.10358.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.95-65.59-39.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.15292.51318.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.3456.3456.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.495.195.66
LTM Dividend per Share2.962.962.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.495.195.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.458.158.62
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate4.58%5.58%6.58%
Fair Value$182.19$262.57$403.28
Upside / Downside-22.74%11.34%71.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)524.74554.00584.90617.52651.95688.31708.96
Payout Ratio31.76%43.41%55.05%66.70%78.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.64240.47322.01411.90510.81619.48655.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate4.58%5.58%6.58%
Year 1 PV (M)218.82220.91223.00
Year 2 PV (M)266.64271.76276.93
Year 3 PV (M)310.36319.35328.51
Year 4 PV (M)350.24363.83377.81
Year 5 PV (M)386.50405.34424.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,990.057,330.717,684.52
Equity Value (M)8,522.608,911.899,315.68
Shares Outstanding (M)56.3456.3456.34
Fair Value$151.27$158.18$165.34
Upside / Downside-35.86%-32.93%-29.89%

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