Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Laureate Education, Inc. (LAUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.81 - $15.98$13.29
Multi-Stage$18.96 - $20.89$19.90
Blended Fair Value$16.59
Current Price$31.54
Upside-47.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-12.59%0.010.761.700.000.000.000.070.000.010.14
YoY Growth---98.49%-55.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-92.65%213.70%
Dividend Yield--0.06%5.16%14.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.50%0.00%0.07%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)203.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7425.4615.28
Cash Retained (M)203.25203.25203.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.74-25.46-15.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)162.51177.79187.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)148.72148.72148.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.81$13.29$15.98
Upside / Downside-65.71%-57.87%-49.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.71201.67199.65197.66195.68193.72199.53
Payout Ratio0.22%18.18%36.13%54.09%72.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.4636.6672.14106.91140.98174.35184.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.93%7.93%7.93%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.6233.9734.31
Year 2 PV (M)60.6961.9363.19
Year 3 PV (M)82.4885.0387.64
Year 4 PV (M)99.76103.89108.15
Year 5 PV (M)113.15119.04125.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,429.502,556.012,687.74
Equity Value (M)2,819.202,959.883,106.20
Shares Outstanding (M)148.72148.72148.72
Fair Value$18.96$19.90$20.89
Upside / Downside-39.90%-36.90%-33.78%

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