Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lalin Property Public Company Limited (LALIN.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $18.13$12.40
Multi-Stage$13.93 - $15.29$14.60
Blended Fair Value$13.50
Current Price$5.00
Upside170.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.49%5.99%0.410.600.640.650.460.350.330.150.230.20
YoY Growth---31.41%-5.46%-2.29%42.38%31.57%6.06%124.37%-36.64%15.56%-13.46%
Dividend Yield--7.83%7.96%7.27%6.55%4.51%9.20%7.10%2.65%5.39%6.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)474.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)291.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)182.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.8359.2735.56
Cash Retained (M)182.78182.78182.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.83-59.27-35.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)87.95123.51147.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)925.00925.00925.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Fair Value$8.84$12.40$18.13
Upside / Downside76.83%147.99%262.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)474.15485.95498.04510.43523.12536.14552.22
Payout Ratio61.45%67.16%72.87%78.58%84.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)291.37326.36362.92401.09440.94482.53510.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate1.49%2.49%3.49%
Year 1 PV (M)304.32307.32310.32
Year 2 PV (M)315.56321.81328.12
Year 3 PV (M)325.21334.91344.81
Year 4 PV (M)333.37346.71360.44
Year 5 PV (M)340.18357.27375.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,270.9611,837.2912,426.17
Equity Value (M)12,889.6013,505.3214,144.91
Shares Outstanding (M)925.00925.00925.00
Fair Value$13.93$14.60$15.29
Upside / Downside178.69%192.01%205.84%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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