Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $141.15 - $291.01 | $198.36 |
| Multi-Stage | $208.83 - $229.35 | $218.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $208.63 | |
| Current Price | $56.31 | |
| Upside | 270.50% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.04% | -0.77% | 1.51 | 1.81 | 1.70 | 1.55 | 1.91 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.37 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -16.55% | 6.38% | 9.53% | -18.62% | 26.09% | 4.55% | 34.56% | -23.06% | 2.16% | -16.13% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.99% | 4.81% | 5.52% | 5.53% | 10.87% | 8.34% | 8.77% | 8.34% | 9.68% | 9.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 2,466.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 787.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1,679.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 493.20 | 308.25 | 184.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1,679.00 | 1,679.00 | 1,679.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -493.20 | -308.25 | -184.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,185.80 | 1,370.75 | 1,494.05 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 304.15 | 304.15 | 304.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.90 | 4.51 | 4.91 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.90 | 4.51 | 4.91 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 6.49 | 7.09 | 7.50 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 1.66% | 2.66% | 3.66% |
| Fair Value | $141.15 | $198.36 | $291.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 150.67% | 252.27% | 416.79% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 2,466.00 | 2,531.48 | 2,598.69 | 2,667.69 | 2,738.52 | 2,811.23 | 2,895.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 31.91% | 43.53% | 55.15% | 66.77% | 78.38% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 787.00 | 1,101.98 | 1,433.14 | 1,781.10 | 2,146.53 | 2,530.11 | 2,678.40 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.33% | 6.33% | 6.33% |
| Growth Rate | 1.66% | 2.66% | 3.66% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,026.32 | 1,036.41 | 1,046.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,243.09 | 1,267.66 | 1,292.48 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,438.83 | 1,481.71 | 1,525.43 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,614.97 | 1,679.46 | 1,745.87 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 1,772.86 | 1,861.79 | 1,954.26 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 56,418.66 | 59,248.80 | 62,191.39 |
| Equity Value (M) | 63,514.73 | 66,575.84 | 69,755.94 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 304.15 | 304.15 | 304.15 |
| Fair Value | $208.83 | $218.89 | $229.35 |
| Upside / Downside | 270.85% | 288.73% | 307.29% |
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