Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.98 - $22.98$17.99
Multi-Stage$21.89 - $23.94$22.89
Blended Fair Value$20.44
Current Price$28.31
Upside-27.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.40%3.81%1.151.141.131.101.060.970.730.500.501.90
YoY Growth--1.11%1.00%2.50%3.43%9.20%33.68%44.46%0.18%-73.53%140.00%
Dividend Yield--4.03%6.18%6.44%5.81%6.38%6.99%3.63%3.35%2.31%10.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,727.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)545.40340.88204.53
Cash Retained (M)135.00135.00135.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-545.40-340.88-204.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-410.40-205.88-69.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.002,222.002,222.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.09-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.09-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.14
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$13.98$17.99$22.98
Upside / Downside-50.62%-36.47%-18.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,727.002,774.772,823.372,872.832,923.152,974.353,063.58
Payout Ratio95.05%94.04%93.03%92.02%91.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,592.002,609.382,626.572,643.572,660.352,676.922,833.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)2,396.192,419.972,443.75
Year 2 PV (M)2,214.912,259.102,303.72
Year 3 PV (M)2,047.112,108.672,171.45
Year 4 PV (M)1,891.791,968.022,046.53
Year 5 PV (M)1,748.041,836.531,928.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,336.3040,276.9642,295.43
Equity Value (M)48,634.3350,869.2453,189.45
Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.002,222.002,222.00
Fair Value$21.89$22.89$23.94
Upside / Downside-22.69%-19.13%-15.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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