Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.72 - $7.34 | $5.93 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.67 - $10.63 | $10.14 |
| Blended Fair Value | $8.04 | |
| Current Price | $3.96 | |
| Upside | 102.95% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -4.24% | -1.48% | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -12.68% | -35.45% | 120.00% | -26.69% | -11.43% | 20.31% | -15.79% | 33.33% | -21.92% | 1.40% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.26% | 7.41% | 10.92% | 3.74% | 7.37% | 10.55% | 6.57% | 8.04% | 6.80% | 10.16% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 983.23 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 617.43 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 365.81 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 196.65 | 122.90 | 73.74 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 365.81 | 365.81 | 365.81 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -196.65 | -122.90 | -73.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 169.16 | 242.90 | 292.06 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.87% | 6.87% | 6.87% |
| Growth Rate | -1.40% | -0.40% | 0.60% |
| Fair Value | $4.72 | $5.93 | $7.34 |
| Upside / Downside | 19.18% | 49.78% | 85.43% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 983.23 | 979.29 | 975.37 | 971.45 | 967.56 | 963.68 | 992.59 |
| Payout Ratio | 62.80% | 68.24% | 73.68% | 79.12% | 84.56% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 617.43 | 668.23 | 718.62 | 768.60 | 818.16 | 867.31 | 918.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.87% | 6.87% | 6.87% |
| Growth Rate | -1.40% | -0.40% | 0.60% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 619.00 | 625.27 | 631.55 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 616.62 | 629.20 | 641.89 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 610.91 | 629.69 | 648.85 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 602.39 | 627.20 | 652.77 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 591.53 | 622.14 | 654.00 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 16,178.85 | 17,016.10 | 17,887.65 |
| Equity Value (M) | 19,219.30 | 20,149.60 | 21,116.72 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 | 1,986.75 |
| Fair Value | $9.67 | $10.14 | $10.63 |
| Upside / Downside | 144.29% | 156.11% | 168.40% |
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