Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.00 - $175.56$124.76
Multi-Stage$76.90 - $83.71$80.24
Blended Fair Value$102.50
Current Price$77.16
Upside32.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.17%7.16%3.083.063.052.842.642.402.292.131.971.71
YoY Growth--0.60%0.60%7.28%7.60%10.15%4.51%7.71%8.02%15.30%10.63%
Dividend Yield--5.09%3.46%4.08%3.02%2.39%3.46%2.17%2.11%2.47%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2811.436.86
Cash Retained (M)27.3027.3027.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.28-11.43-6.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.0215.8820.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.4516.4516.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.971.24
LTM Dividend per Share3.903.903.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.971.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.454.865.14
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Fair Value$91.00$124.76$175.56
Upside / Downside17.93%61.69%127.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.4097.03103.00109.34116.07123.22126.91
Payout Ratio70.13%74.11%78.08%82.05%86.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.1071.9080.4289.7299.85110.90117.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.29%10.29%10.29%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)64.5865.1965.81
Year 2 PV (M)64.8766.1167.36
Year 3 PV (M)65.0066.8768.78
Year 4 PV (M)64.9767.4870.06
Year 5 PV (M)64.8067.9571.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)940.57986.151,033.48
Equity Value (M)1,264.791,319.741,376.69
Shares Outstanding (M)16.4516.4516.45
Fair Value$76.90$80.24$83.71
Upside / Downside-0.33%4.00%8.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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