Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk (JPFA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29,916.41 - $57,030.03$53,445.49
Multi-Stage$8,976.74 - $9,823.45$9,392.33
Blended Fair Value$31,418.91
Current Price$1,960.00
Upside1,503.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.11%22.64%70.4349.9762.3542.0522.2254.8999.4146.0920.610.00
YoY Growth--40.95%-19.86%48.29%89.22%-59.52%-44.78%115.70%123.66%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.50%4.22%5.54%2.55%1.16%5.78%5.63%3.11%1.33%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,334,388.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,632,874.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,701,514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)666,877.60416,798.50250,079.10
Cash Retained (M)1,701,514.001,701,514.001,701,514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-666,877.60-416,798.50-250,079.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,034,636.401,284,715.501,451,434.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11,627.6711,627.6711,627.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share88.98110.49124.83
LTM Dividend per Share140.43140.43140.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share88.98110.49124.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend229.41250.92265.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29,916.41$53,445.49$57,030.03
Upside / Downside1,426.35%2,626.81%2,809.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,334,388.003,551,123.223,781,946.234,027,772.734,289,577.964,568,400.534,705,452.55
Payout Ratio48.97%57.18%65.38%73.59%81.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,632,874.002,030,410.832,472,728.552,963,969.093,508,623.624,111,560.484,352,543.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,891,980.601,909,914.071,927,847.54
Year 2 PV (M)2,147,049.032,187,944.282,229,225.34
Year 3 PV (M)2,398,125.732,466,967.302,537,113.88
Year 4 PV (M)2,645,256.682,746,985.792,851,621.22
Year 5 PV (M)2,888,487.413,028,002.433,172,857.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,407,716.9996,871,044.28101,505,193.60
Equity Value (M)104,378,616.44109,210,858.14114,223,858.60
Shares Outstanding (M)11,627.6711,627.6711,627.67
Fair Value$8,976.74$9,392.33$9,823.45
Upside / Downside358.00%379.20%401.20%

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