Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $123.79 - $208.38 | $160.83 |
| Multi-Stage | $236.25 - $259.63 | $247.72 |
| Blended Fair Value | $204.27 | |
| Current Price | $181.62 | |
| Upside | 12.47% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 3.58% | 4.29% | 4.88 | 4.85 | 4.82 | 4.55 | 4.32 | 4.09 | 3.92 | 3.69 | 3.56 | 3.37 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.45% | 0.75% | 5.89% | 5.26% | 5.69% | 4.46% | 6.16% | 3.74% | 5.48% | 5.21% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.94% | 3.08% | 3.07% | 2.58% | 2.64% | 3.08% | 2.82% | 2.96% | 2.85% | 3.10% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 25,119.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 12,234.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 12,885.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 5,023.80 | 3,139.88 | 1,883.93 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 12,885.00 | 12,885.00 | 12,885.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -5,023.80 | -3,139.88 | -1,883.93 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 7,861.20 | 9,745.13 | 11,001.08 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,424.65 | 2,424.65 | 2,424.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.24 | 4.02 | 4.54 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.24 | 4.02 | 4.54 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.29 | 9.06 | 9.58 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -0.20% | 0.80% | 1.80% |
| Fair Value | $123.79 | $160.83 | $208.38 |
| Upside / Downside | -31.84% | -11.45% | 14.74% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 25,119.00 | 25,319.17 | 25,520.94 | 25,724.32 | 25,929.32 | 26,135.95 | 26,920.03 |
| Payout Ratio | 48.70% | 56.96% | 65.22% | 73.48% | 81.74% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 12,234.00 | 14,422.65 | 16,645.40 | 18,902.66 | 21,194.84 | 23,522.36 | 24,901.03 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.48% | 6.48% | 6.48% |
| Growth Rate | -0.20% | 0.80% | 1.80% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 13,410.78 | 13,545.16 | 13,679.54 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 14,391.70 | 14,681.57 | 14,974.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 15,196.72 | 15,658.15 | 16,128.82 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 15,844.05 | 16,488.71 | 17,152.85 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 16,350.31 | 17,186.07 | 18,055.66 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 497,626.27 | 523,062.90 | 549,529.24 |
| Equity Value (M) | 572,819.83 | 600,622.56 | 629,520.43 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,424.65 | 2,424.65 | 2,424.65 |
| Fair Value | $236.25 | $247.72 | $259.63 |
| Upside / Downside | 30.08% | 36.39% | 42.95% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
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