Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $23.15 - $31.98 | $27.59 |
| Multi-Stage | $45.70 - $50.08 | $47.85 |
| Blended Fair Value | $37.72 | |
| Current Price | $18.74 | |
| Upside | 101.29% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.58% | 0.00% | 1.78 | 1.57 | 1.06 | 0.97 | 0.98 | 3.30 | 6.03 | 9.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.76% | 47.49% | 9.88% | -1.02% | -70.39% | -45.25% | -37.35% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 9.91% | 9.29% | 6.57% | 4.62% | 4.95% | 15.04% | 26.99% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 22.92 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 19.32 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 3.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 4.58 | 2.86 | 1.72 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -4.58 | -2.86 | -1.72 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -0.99 | 0.73 | 1.88 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.53 | 3.53 | 3.53 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.18 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.35 | 3.66 | 3.87 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.68% | -3.68% | -2.68% |
| Fair Value | $23.15 | $27.59 | $31.98 |
| Upside / Downside | 23.56% | 47.24% | 70.63% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 22.92 | 22.07 | 21.26 | 20.48 | 19.72 | 19.00 | 19.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 84.31% | 85.45% | 86.59% | 87.72% | 88.86% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 19.32 | 18.86 | 18.41 | 17.96 | 17.53 | 17.10 | 18.10 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.68% | -3.68% | -2.68% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 17.11 | 17.29 | 17.47 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 15.15 | 15.47 | 15.79 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 13.41 | 13.83 | 14.27 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11.87 | 12.37 | 12.89 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 10.50 | 11.06 | 11.65 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 182.27 | 192.03 | 202.21 |
| Equity Value (M) | 250.30 | 262.05 | 274.28 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 5.48 | 5.48 | 5.48 |
| Fair Value | $45.70 | $47.85 | $50.08 |
| Upside / Downside | 143.88% | 155.33% | 167.24% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 282330.KS | BGF retail Co. Ltd. | 3.93% | $4,100.00 | 37.49% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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| TSPC.JK | PT Tempo Scan Pacific Tbk | 3.93% | $111.90 | 33.61% |
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