Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jack Chia Industries (Thailand) Public Company Limited (JCT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.74 - $109.11$88.57
Multi-Stage$167.15 - $183.71$175.26
Blended Fair Value$131.92
Current Price$80.00
Upside64.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.23%0.07%4.123.893.413.434.094.073.993.893.904.87
YoY Growth--5.74%14.24%-0.51%-16.19%0.43%1.99%2.50%-0.04%-19.99%19.03%
Dividend Yield--5.26%4.94%4.29%4.28%4.90%5.61%4.79%4.31%4.71%5.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)103.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)86.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.7512.977.78
Cash Retained (M)16.7516.7516.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.75-12.97-7.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.003.788.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.5013.5013.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.300.280.66
LTM Dividend per Share6.446.446.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.300.280.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.156.727.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.08%-1.08%-0.08%
Fair Value$70.74$88.57$109.11
Upside / Downside-11.57%10.72%36.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)103.73102.61101.50100.4099.3298.24101.19
Payout Ratio83.85%85.08%86.31%87.54%88.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)86.9887.3087.6187.8988.1688.4293.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.08%-1.08%-0.08%
Year 1 PV (M)81.2082.0382.86
Year 2 PV (M)75.7977.3578.92
Year 3 PV (M)70.7272.9175.15
Year 4 PV (M)65.9868.7271.54
Year 5 PV (M)61.5564.7668.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,901.222,000.302,103.47
Equity Value (M)2,256.462,366.072,480.04
Shares Outstanding (M)13.5013.5013.50
Fair Value$167.15$175.26$183.71
Upside / Downside108.93%119.08%129.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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