Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$159.47 - $300.88$216.79
Multi-Stage$174.23 - $190.45$182.19
Blended Fair Value$199.49
Current Price$260.76
Upside-23.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.11%9.08%5.775.505.254.984.694.503.833.202.802.53
YoY Growth--4.95%4.73%5.40%6.09%4.39%17.53%19.45%14.62%10.65%4.36%
Dividend Yield--2.33%2.07%2.16%2.38%2.12%3.16%2.58%2.04%2.11%2.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,026.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,761.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,265.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)605.20378.25226.95
Cash Retained (M)1,265.001,265.001,265.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-605.20-378.25-226.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)659.80886.751,038.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)293.73293.73293.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.253.023.53
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.253.023.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.249.019.53
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.11%4.11%5.11%
Fair Value$159.47$216.79$300.88
Upside / Downside-38.84%-16.86%15.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,026.003,150.443,279.993,414.873,555.303,701.503,812.55
Payout Ratio58.20%64.56%70.92%77.28%83.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,761.002,033.812,326.082,638.952,973.623,331.353,526.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate3.11%4.11%5.11%
Year 1 PV (M)1,857.481,875.491,893.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,940.231,978.042,016.22
Year 3 PV (M)2,010.352,069.412,129.62
Year 4 PV (M)2,068.902,150.332,234.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,116.842,221.502,330.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,182.7743,218.8745,334.71
Equity Value (M)51,176.5753,513.6555,938.46
Shares Outstanding (M)293.73293.73293.73
Fair Value$174.23$182.19$190.45
Upside / Downside-33.18%-30.13%-26.97%

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