Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $31.09 - $82.47 | $47.54 |
| Multi-Stage | $21.77 - $23.76 | $22.75 |
| Blended Fair Value | $35.14 | |
| Current Price | $15.15 | |
| Upside | 131.97% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 10.99% | 0.00% | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 15.82% | -2.04% | 7.93% | 11.46% | 23.40% | -5.84% | 105.37% | 89.94% | 300.43% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 3.87% | 3.45% | 6.47% | 3.96% | 3.15% | 2.42% | 3.18% | 1.54% | 0.87% | 0.32% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 313.33 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 138.61 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 174.73 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 62.67 | 39.17 | 23.50 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 174.73 | 174.73 | 174.73 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -62.67 | -39.17 | -23.50 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 112.06 | 135.56 | 151.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 236.43 | 236.43 | 236.43 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.06 | 1.16 | 1.23 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $31.09 | $47.54 | $82.47 |
| Upside / Downside | 105.20% | 213.77% | 444.34% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 313.33 | 333.70 | 355.39 | 378.49 | 403.09 | 429.29 | 442.17 |
| Payout Ratio | 44.24% | 53.39% | 62.54% | 71.69% | 80.85% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 138.61 | 178.16 | 222.27 | 271.36 | 325.89 | 386.36 | 409.01 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 161.77 | 163.30 | 164.84 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 183.25 | 186.74 | 190.27 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 203.14 | 208.97 | 214.92 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 221.52 | 230.04 | 238.80 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 238.47 | 249.98 | 261.94 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,139.77 | 4,339.72 | 4,547.33 |
| Equity Value (M) | 5,147.92 | 5,378.76 | 5,618.09 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 236.43 | 236.43 | 236.43 |
| Fair Value | $21.77 | $22.75 | $23.76 |
| Upside / Downside | 43.72% | 50.17% | 56.85% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMTK.JK | PT Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk | 3.98% | $43.78 | 48.47% |
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| 3217.TWO | Argosy Research Inc. | 3.97% | $6.40 | 54.14% |
| 5434.TW | Topco Scientific Co.,Ltd. | 3.97% | $11.76 | 59.09% |
| ALTXC.PA | TXCOM Group | 3.97% | $0.30 | 35.01% |
| MND.AX | Monadelphous Group Limited | 3.97% | $1.05 | 72.16% |
| MXI.AX | MaxiPARTS Limited | 3.97% | $0.09 | 46.30% |
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| CNT.BK | Christiani & Nielsen (Thai) Public Company Limited | 3.96% | $0.04 | 56.47% |
| UCID.JK | PT Uni-Charm Indonesia Tbk | 3.96% | $16.86 | 78.76% |
| 002758.SZ | ZJAMP Group Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $0.40 | 46.30% |
| 4065.KL | PPB Group Berhad | 3.95% | $0.42 | 72.75% |
| 600585.SS | Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited | 3.95% | $0.86 | 51.83% |
| 8464.TW | Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. | 3.95% | $14.49 | 64.65% |
| BRFS3.SA | BRF S.A. | 3.95% | $0.71 | 31.92% |
| F34.SI | Wilmar International Limited | 3.95% | $0.12 | 63.66% |
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| 6412.T | Heiwa Corporation | 3.94% | $80.00 | 63.34% |
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| NDT.MI | Neodecortech S.p.A. | 3.94% | $0.15 | 28.43% |
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| 601789.SS | Ningbo Construction Co., Ltd. | 3.93% | $0.20 | 78.65% |
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