Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92,133.60 - $175,812.47$164,762.03
Multi-Stage$27,365.29 - $29,963.30$28,640.38
Blended Fair Value$96,701.20
Current Price$7,225.00
Upside1,238.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.32%6.52%267.00257.00278.00278.00278.00171.00302.00235.00168.00220.00
YoY Growth--3.89%-7.55%0.00%0.00%62.57%-43.38%28.51%39.88%-23.64%54.93%
Dividend Yield--3.76%4.00%4.48%4.67%4.21%2.69%4.81%3.26%2.10%3.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,762,205.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,458,520.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,303,685.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,552,441.00970,275.63582,165.38
Cash Retained (M)5,303,685.005,303,685.005,303,685.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,552,441.00-970,275.63-582,165.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,751,244.004,333,409.384,721,519.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,780.438,780.438,780.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share427.23493.53537.73
LTM Dividend per Share280.00280.00280.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share427.23493.53537.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend707.23773.53817.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$92,133.60$164,762.03$175,812.47
Upside / Downside1,175.21%2,180.44%2,333.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,762,205.008,266,748.338,804,086.979,376,352.629,985,815.5410,634,893.5510,953,940.36
Payout Ratio31.67%43.34%55.00%66.67%78.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,458,520.003,582,673.744,842,580.226,251,137.747,822,347.849,571,404.1910,132,394.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,338,387.063,370,030.543,401,674.02
Year 2 PV (M)4,204,706.434,284,794.284,365,637.68
Year 3 PV (M)5,057,633.475,202,819.955,350,758.70
Year 4 PV (M)5,897,321.936,124,116.296,357,390.00
Year 5 PV (M)6,723,924.017,048,692.067,385,889.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)215,056,984.65225,444,317.43236,229,197.87
Equity Value (M)240,278,957.56251,474,770.54263,090,548.01
Shares Outstanding (M)8,780.438,780.438,780.43
Fair Value$27,365.29$28,640.38$29,963.30
Upside / Downside278.76%296.41%314.72%

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