Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.83 - $51.56$42.83
Multi-Stage$69.84 - $76.96$73.33
Blended Fair Value$58.08
Current Price$68.71
Upside-15.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.16%-0.56%0.650.650.650.650.660.680.680.680.680.68
YoY Growth--0.01%0.06%0.05%-2.97%-2.90%0.01%0.02%0.04%0.04%0.12%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.99%0.75%0.65%0.76%1.68%1.43%2.58%1.98%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7210.456.27
Cash Retained (M)71.3271.3271.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.72-10.45-6.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.6060.8765.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.9918.9918.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.873.203.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.873.203.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.56%-1.56%-0.56%
Fair Value$34.83$42.83$51.56
Upside / Downside-49.32%-37.67%-24.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.5982.2981.0179.7478.5077.2879.59
Payout Ratio14.68%29.74%44.81%59.87%74.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.2724.4736.3047.7458.8269.5573.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate-2.56%-1.56%-0.56%
Year 1 PV (M)22.5822.8123.04
Year 2 PV (M)30.8931.5332.17
Year 3 PV (M)37.4938.6639.85
Year 4 PV (M)42.6144.3946.22
Year 5 PV (M)46.4848.9251.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,146.491,206.551,269.09
Equity Value (M)1,326.551,392.851,461.82
Shares Outstanding (M)18.9918.9918.99
Fair Value$69.84$73.33$76.96
Upside / Downside1.64%6.72%12.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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