Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Hexcel Corporation (HXL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.89 - $6.79$5.84
Multi-Stage$9.00 - $9.85$9.42
Blended Fair Value$7.63
Current Price$62.70
Upside-87.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.88%0.00%0.610.520.420.000.180.670.600.530.490.47
YoY Growth--16.82%25.22%0.00%-100.00%-73.80%11.98%13.62%7.04%3.92%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.11%0.72%0.61%0.00%0.31%1.80%0.85%0.81%0.90%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.768.605.16
Cash Retained (M)15.7015.7015.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.76-8.60-5.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.947.1010.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.1381.1381.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-3.88%-2.88%-1.88%
Fair Value$4.89$5.84$6.79
Upside / Downside-92.20%-90.68%-89.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.8066.8264.9063.0361.2259.4661.24
Payout Ratio77.18%79.74%82.31%84.87%87.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.1053.2953.4253.5053.5353.5156.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate-3.88%-2.88%-1.88%
Year 1 PV (M)48.1848.6849.18
Year 2 PV (M)43.6744.5945.51
Year 3 PV (M)39.5540.7942.07
Year 4 PV (M)35.7837.2938.85
Year 5 PV (M)32.3434.0635.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)530.31558.47587.82
Equity Value (M)729.83763.88799.28
Shares Outstanding (M)81.1381.1381.13
Fair Value$9.00$9.42$9.85
Upside / Downside-85.65%-84.98%-84.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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