Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.37 - $38.26$32.14
Multi-Stage$38.03 - $41.78$39.87
Blended Fair Value$36.00
Current Price$196.23
Upside-81.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.42%-4.00%0.260.170.100.040.030.140.290.400.560.55
YoY Growth--50.70%69.05%147.06%54.55%-80.70%-52.10%-26.54%-28.95%2.24%38.51%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.26%0.24%0.12%0.08%0.87%1.49%1.73%2.13%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,450.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,287.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.00181.25108.75
Cash Retained (M)1,287.001,287.001,287.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.00-181.25-108.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)997.001,105.751,178.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)406.75406.75406.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.452.722.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.452.722.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.853.123.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Fair Value$26.37$32.14$38.26
Upside / Downside-86.56%-83.62%-80.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,450.001,448.821,447.641,446.461,445.281,444.101,487.42
Payout Ratio11.24%26.99%42.74%58.50%74.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.00391.08618.79846.131,073.091,299.691,375.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-1.08%-0.08%0.92%
Year 1 PV (M)353.20356.77360.34
Year 2 PV (M)504.72514.98525.33
Year 3 PV (M)623.30642.39661.87
Year 4 PV (M)713.92743.23773.43
Year 5 PV (M)780.92821.20863.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,493.2713,137.6613,808.38
Equity Value (M)15,469.3316,216.2316,992.48
Shares Outstanding (M)406.75406.75406.75
Fair Value$38.03$39.87$41.78
Upside / Downside-80.62%-79.68%-78.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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