Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Humana Inc. (HUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare PlansSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$537.65 - $2,126.05$1,468.97
Multi-Stage$259.41 - $283.79$271.37
Blended Fair Value$870.17
Current Price$260.17
Upside234.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.17%9.62%3.573.573.252.932.672.412.191.821.471.42
YoY Growth--0.00%9.95%10.73%9.60%11.00%9.81%20.45%24.29%2.91%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.02%0.67%0.67%0.64%0.77%0.82%0.68%0.71%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,291.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)258.20161.3896.83
Cash Retained (M)862.00862.00862.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-258.20-161.38-96.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)603.80700.63765.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.76120.76120.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.005.806.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.553.553.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.005.806.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.559.359.89
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$537.65$1,468.97$2,126.05
Upside / Downside106.65%464.62%717.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,291.001,374.921,464.281,559.461,660.831,768.781,821.85
Payout Ratio33.23%44.58%55.94%67.29%78.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.00612.99819.091,049.391,306.181,591.901,685.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)566.57571.94577.31
Year 2 PV (M)699.72713.05726.50
Year 3 PV (M)828.57852.35876.59
Year 4 PV (M)953.21989.871,027.57
Year 5 PV (M)1,073.741,125.601,179.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,205.0828,519.1029,883.40
Equity Value (M)31,326.8932,771.9134,270.83
Shares Outstanding (M)120.76120.76120.76
Fair Value$259.41$271.37$283.79
Upside / Downside-0.29%4.31%9.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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